Positive Support, China Rapeseed Meal Continues to Rise

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal on March 14th was 2,733 RMB/ton, and on March 21st, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 2,823 RMB/ton, with an increase of 3.29% during the period. Rapeseed meal continues the upward trend of last week, and the recent price trend is relatively strong.

　　Supply side: It is expected that the quantity of imported rapeseed will remain high in the later stage, and the output of rapeseed meal will increase. On the demand side: The weather is gradually warming up, and aquaculture is entering the peak season. The purchasing sentiment of aquaculture enterprises is increasing, and there are positive expectations on the demand side. In addition, the price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal is at a high level, and the substitution effect of rapeseed meal is still present, boosting the demand for rapeseed meal. Internationally, the Canadian Department of Agriculture has lowered its forecast for Canadian rapeseed production for 2024/2025 to 18.1 million tons, down from 18.328 million tons in 2023/2024. Lowering the estimated year-end inventory of rapeseed for 2024/2025 to 1.65 million tons, lower than the 2 million tons for 2023/2024. Internationally, it is favorable for the domestic market of rapeseed meal.

　　In terms of soybean meal: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal on March 14th was 3,456 RMB/ton, and on March 21st, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,586 RMB/ton, with an increase of 3.76% during the period. Recently, soybean meal has shown an upward trend, boosting the market for rapeseed meal.

　　In summary, it is expected that the trend of rapeseed meal will be mainly strong and volatile.